The scenario seems created TV through dramatic patter and suspense and ends in elation or abject disappointment, depending upon which team you’re cheering for.

You are watching: How often does icing the kicker work

A ar goal attempt at the end of the game, even if it is to send it into overtime; take it a little lead; or, most dramatically, do a walk-off kick, is one of the most dramatic moment in sports. One almost-mandatory component of that drama is the the opposite team’s usage of a time out or two or three to ‘ice’ the kicker...to do him feel the the push a bit long in hopes he will certainly psyche himself out and also miss the field goal.

To price the rhetorical in the article’s headline...yes, of food icing the kicker is a thing. It happens every Saturday. In 2017 and also 2018 (so far) it has actually happened 196 times. The real inquiry is “does it work?” A prefer so plenty of other questions that progressed analytics tries come answer, the price is “it depends.”

Let’s dig into it.

Looking at just 2017 and 2018 because I don’t have granular data on ar goals prior to 2017, i separated the end all the field goal do the efforts and detailed whether castle were instantly preceded in the play count by a time out. I’m making a few assumptions right here that must be considered.

I’m assuming that a time out prior to a ar goal attempt is an attempt to ice the kicker. This ignores the times the a team phone call a time the end in stimulate to collection up a ar goal attempt. Anecdotally this is a pretty tiny number but it happens and also my analysis can’t account for this because I don’t have actually data on who referred to as the time out.I’m only looking at ar goal attempts in the fourth quarter or in OT. Anecdotally, again, i don’t recall an effort to ‘ice a kicker’ earlier in the game. Ns don’t think most coaches would certainly burn a time out previously in the video game to do this. However it’s possible, and also my analysis doesn’t account because that it.I’m looking in ~ success rates for field goals given the condition of iced or not iced. “Iced” just occurs about 20% of the time, for this reason the smaller number of ‘iced’ attempts would certainly be much more impacted by a couple of made or missed field goals than the ‘not iced’ condition.

Looking at all field goal make the efforts in Q4 and also OT, there to be 1070 attempts. 761, or 71% the them were good. Provided the condition of whether a kicker was iced or not does seem to do a difference. Because that kickers that were iced, the number of made ar goals drops to 123/196, or 63%, when the kickers that were no iced to be 638/874, or 73% to be good.

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breaking this under by the street of the effort muddies the waters a bit.

Considering only ar goal do the efforts of ranges

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For ranges from 26-35 yards the outcomes are similar, though over there is some increasing proof of an icing effect.

Kickers were effective on 277/357, or 78%, that attempts at this distance. The price drops come 46/63, or 73% because that iced kickers if kickers that were no iced connected on 231/294, or 79% the attempts.

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For distances from 36-45 yards the icing impact is there, but is still no overwhelming.

Kickers were successful on 236/353, or 67%, of attempts. The rate drops to 25/42, or 62% because that iced kickers while kickers who were no iced connected on 195/287, or 68% that attempts.

Generally, from distances up to around 45 yards, icing the kicker shows up to minimize the opportunities of a effective kick about 5% or so.

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Things start to get interesting at distances past 45 yards. What is currently a long field goal attempt shows up to be extremely susceptible to influence by one icing effect.

from 45 yards or more, kickers make 79/175, or 45% of attempts. Kickers who were iced, however, were only about fifty percent as successful, connecting on just 10/38, or 26% that attempts. Kickers who were not iced linked on 69/137, or 50%, of attempts.

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ns think it’s reasonable come conclude the icing the kicker can influence the kickers probability of success at distances greater 보다 25 yards, with an increasing affect as the street increases. If an the opposite coach has a time out to use, utilizing it to iced the kicker is a smart thing to do.